HOW LONG WILL THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST LAST?

11.03.2026 With the war in the Middle East having pushed up the oil price markets are now focused on how long the hostilities will last. Below we look at the dynamics of the conflict.

Oil and gas prices have risen sharply, essentially because Iran has closed the Straits of Hormuz by threatening to attack any commercial shipping that tries to navigate that stretch of water. The effect of this threat has been significant because ordinarily about 20% of global oil and natural gas supplies pass through the Straits on a daily basis. As a result, markets are very focused on when the hostilities will end.

In Iran the election of the new Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who is more hard line than his father, suggests that the regime is unlikely to surrender anytime soon. Furthermore, the Iranians who protested against the regime in January have not returned to the streets. This implies a relatively low level of internal dissent currently.

President Trump, on the other hand, is struggling with sceptical public opinion and rising petrol prices. The latter is unlikely to endear the Republican party to mid-term election voters. His comment on Monday that the war was very nearly complete suggests he is looking for an “off ramp”.

There has been talk of allied naval escorts for cargo vessels to break the Iranian blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. However, in the midst of a military conflict this is just too dangerous. Whilst the Americans have taken out a lot of the Iranian military infrastructure in the vicinity it remains impossible to destroy all of it. The problem that the US and the allies face is that a small, cheap and difficult to detect piece of military equipment can do enormous amounts of damage to cargo and naval shipping. The disruption that the Houthi rebels of Yemen have caused to maritime traffic in Red Sea is testament to this. To make matters worse the Iranians are far better equipped militarily than the Houthi are.

In the circumstances a ceasefire is probably the best that can be hoped for. This might come about from a situation where the damage to Iranian infrastructure, from American and Israeli bombing, was becoming critical and the US petrol price was too high for President Trump. However, getting the Iranians to the negotiating table may prove more difficult than some envisage. The Americans seem to have been relatively unprepared for disruption to the global energy markets that the war has caused (for example the Strategic Oil Reserve is only about half full). As a result, the Iranians may drag their feet in attempt to extract concessions. Generally, the pain threshold of an autocratic government is higher than that of a democratic government. 

So, until a ceasefire is agreed oil prices are likely to trend higher and share prices can be expected to remain under pressure.

For information only. Investors should seek professional advice for their own circumstances before making an investment.

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This post was written by Robin